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Saturday, March 14, 2009

a.k.a. Cover Your Butt Syndrome

coaps.fsu.edu Ryan Maue's Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity Update:

"Tropical cyclone (TC) activity worldwide has completely and utterly collapsed during the past 2 to 3 years with TC energy levels sinking to levels not seen since the late 1970s. This should not be a surprise to scientists since the natural variability in climate dominates any detectable or perceived global warming impact when it comes to measuring yearly integrated tropical cyclone activity.

With the continuation (persistence) of colder Pacific tropical sea-surface temperatures associated with the effects of La Nina, the upcoming 2009 Atlantic hurricane season should be above average, as we saw in 2008.

Nevertheless, since the Atlantic only makes up 10-15% of overall global TC activity each year (climatological average during the past 30 years), continued Northern Hemispheric and global TC inactivity as a whole likely will continue."


http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/global_running_ace.jpg

Of course, in order to justify all the money they have been pouring into and to keep the gears going to fund the 'enviromentally friendly' industry - they have to coverr their butts by saying that these are only temporary climate influences ....

But make no mistake -- we are about to enter into a lower cycle of hurricanes, but it does not mean that people need to get complacent ... while the oceans may be cooler, the energy will still exist in the atmosphere and seek release.

It would be more interesting to see if there is some correlation between lower ocean activities and higher land-locked weather, or lower ocean activity & higher tectonics, or land weather to tectonics .... etc.

I don't think I've seen anything like that .... there has been a lot of tectonic activity lately (increased amounts on the poles), perhaps this will have something to do with it all.

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